Toronto Mayoral Election: Doug Ford In, Rob Ford Out

Last week the Toronto Mayoral election was thrown a curveball. Current Mayor Rob Ford dropped out of the mayoral race due to health problems, and his brother Doug, who is currently a city councillor, joined the race at the last minute. This week we learned that Rob Ford has an abdominal tumour and will be undergoing chemotherapy. I want to talk about how this effects the election.

For one, I think this gives the Chow campaign a much needed boost. From my own interactions with voters and from what I’ve seen in the media, there are a lot of voters who were going to vote for John Tory because they absolutely did not want Rob Ford to win. Some people even suggested that Olivia Chow drop out so that they don’t split the votes and let Rob Ford win. With this new development, this is no longer a big issue. I think people who absolutely did not want Rob Ford back as mayor now have the opportunity to think about all the candidates and their policies.

Secondly, while a lot of Ford nation will vote for Doug Ford, there are rumours that he is much less popular than his brother Rob. It is possible that many of these people choose to vote for another candidate, however they would most likely vote for Tory because his policies are more conservative than Chow’s.

I also think that this will have an interesting effect on the media. This will hopefully allow for a greater focus on policies and on issues, which may help the Chow campaign. At the same time, it is likely that the media won’t be as harsh on Rob Ford now that he is ill. It will be interesting to see how Doug Ford talks about his brother’s reign as mayor and what he would or wouldn’t do differently.

On the other hand, Rob Ford being involved guaranteed a high voter turnout. Whether people absolutely loved him or hated him, almost everyone had some feelings towards him. People were going to vote to make sure he was removed from office or to make sure he got a 2^nd term as mayor. Many of these people may choose not to vote now, if they are apathetic about the other choices. However Doug Ford may evoke similar sentiments from voters.

One interesting thing is that Rob Ford has not dropped out of the election completely. Instead of running for mayor he has decided to run for city councillor in Ward 2 in Etobicoke. Rob Ford previously served 10 years as city councillor in the ward and it was currently being represented by his nephew, Michael Ford. He has now dropped out of that race to run for school board trustee in Etobicoke Ward 1. I’m quite surprised at how many Ford’s are involved in Toronto politics. I find it interesting that Rob Ford has decided to continue to be involved in city politics even though he is ill. How can you spend your time at city hall representing your ward if you are spending your days in the hospital? You would think he would want to focus on getting better and spending time with his family, but at this point I think everyone has given up trying to figure out what goes on in his mind.

Overall, this news brings some interesting changes to the campaign. This could either help Chow close the gap, or it will help Tory continue to run away with the lead. I look forward to seeing the campaigns ramp up in the next 5 weeks or so. 

Final Thoughts on Ontario's 2014 Election

It’s been more than a month since the provincial election happened. I was tempted to write about it right away but I decided to let the dust settle, let all the stats roll in and see what kind of story they told. This is my interpretation of the story.

In retrospect, Premier Kathleen Wynne looks like a genius for calling an election. Not only did her party win, but they won a majority, which means they will be able to do a lot more on their own, without needing the NDP as a partner. Wynne called an election (technically she asked the lieutenant governor to call the election), when the NDP announced they would be voting against the Liberal’s proposed budget. According to Andrea Horwath (NDP leader), this was because the budget was a ‘mad dash to escape all the scandals by promising the moon and the stars’, and that the Liberals still hadn’t kept last year’s budget promises. She didn’t trust the Liberals any more, and she didn’t think the people did either.

So what happened? I personally believe that all it would have taken was one viable candidate, someone the people could believe in, and this would have been a completely different story. The voters wanted the Liberals gone, they were tired of hearing how their tax money was wasted and projects were being cancelled. Unfortunately this election, like so many others, turned into “who do we dislike the least?” Instead of voting for the person who’s values and plan we believed in (which was no one’s), voters chose the lesser of 3 (or 4 if you count the green party) evils – the one they already knew.

Tim Hudak (leader of the Conservatives) focused his campaign around his proposed Million Jobs plan. Basically he was going to reduce tax, government services, energy costs, and regulations to create jobs. Sounds pretty good right? The problem was that there were severe mathematical errors with his calculations. I’m pretty sure they just picked a number out of the air. For one, there aren’t a million unemployed people in Ontario. It’s around 600,000 as of December. But hey, overreaching when it comes to jobs isn’t the worst thing in the world. Secondly, experts said that even if the PCs data was correct, their plan would only create 50,000 jobs, after taking out the 500,000 jobs that would be created without any policy change. Tim Hudak’s response went like this: “We can have a great argument over whether it’s going to create 80,000, 100,000, 120,000 or 150,000 jobs, the bottom line is, it’s going to create jobs”. Well actually it does matter because part of the Million Jobs plan is to cut 100,000 public sector jobs, so if the plan only creates 80,000 jobs then we are actually down 20,000 jobs. Besides even 150,000 jobs is a long way from the proposed 1 million. All in all, Ontarians weren’t buying what Hudak was selling and the Conservatives got beat up badly at the polls. Tim Hudak quickly stepped down as the Conservative leader.

Andrea Horwath was always in a tough situation. She lurched her party to the right in an attempt to pick up Conservative voters and upset much of her party. She tried to tell the voters that they didn’t have to choose between “bad ethics and bad math” but the NDP spent most of the election watching from the sidelines. Last year she was criticized for supporting the Liberal budget, with some saying she was an accomplice in the power plant fiasco. This year she was criticized for not supporting the Liberal budget. It was a lose-lose race for the NDP.

While the Conservative economic plan centered more around cutting government spending (similar to austerity measures), the Liberal economic plan centered around increased government spending, particularly on infrastructure projects. Much of this was also focused on transportation, including several LRT (high speed rail) systems, like the one currently being built in Ottawa. While the Liberals were swimming in scandals, it helped that all of that happened under Dalton McGuinty’s watch, and that Wynne was a fairly fresh face.

It was certainly a lot of milestones. Wynne is the first elected female premier of Ontario and Canada’s first openly gay premier. This is the Liberals 4^th consecutive win (starting in 2003) and they flipped some big ridings, like my current riding of Trinity-Spadina in downtown Toronto, which had been NDP for 24 years previously. Interestingly, this loss was not because of a decrease in NDP votes (the candidate did about the same as in 2011), but it is because of the huge jump in the number of people voting. Trinity-Spadina had the highest increase in voter turnout in the province, at 23%, and it looks like most of those people voted Liberal. This increase in voter turnout was consistent across the province with 52% of the eligible voters coming to the polls – almost 4% higher than the last election – and reversing a declining trend since 1990. However Ontario still has one of the lowest turnouts in the country, especially when compared to Quebec’s recent election which attracted 71% of voters.

The last interesting statistic I want to share, is the number of declined ballots. A declined ballot is when the voter actively tells the polling officer that they are declining to vote. 31,399 people declined to vote this year, compared to 2,335 declined votes in 2011. That’s a lot of people saying that they don’t want any of these people in charge. We will have to see what the Liberals do now that they have a majority government. 

Phone Banks & Canvassing

So it turns out that volunteering for a political campaign is pretty much exactly what you’d expect it to be. I spent a few hours with both Adam Vaughan’s campaign (federal) and Olivia Chow’s campaign (mayoral), with the majority of time spent canvassing, and some time spent doing the phone bank. Here’s what I experienced:

Phone banks are awkward! I’m sure there are some people that have no problem with it but for myself, who doesn’t make phone calls unless I absolutely have to, calling strangers is beyond weird. Basically someone logs you onto the Liberal database of voters for the area, and it says the person’s name, phone number and anyone else who lives at that house. You have a script to read if they answer which basically goes like, “ Hello, _________. My name is _________, and I’m a volunteer for Adam Vaughan’s election campaign. Adam Vaughan has done x, y and z. We were wondering who you would be voting for in the federal election?” Then there are all kinds of boxes to check off depending on their answer. Aside from direct answers to the question (Liberal, NDP, Conservative, etc.), there are also boxes for non-citizen, language barrier, deceased, moved, etc. Most of the time, people don’t answer. I found that the majority of people who did answer no longer lived in the area. This is because the data is from the last federal election, making it 3 years old. You would think people wouldn’t mind being asked quickly who they’re voting for, but we’re so used to people calling to try and sell us things that we immediately have our guard up. All I could think about was how anytime someone like this called our house my dad would answer the phone, say “Merry Christmas” and hang up. It didn’t matter what time of the year it was.

As for canvassing, I thought it was a lot more enjoyable. You have a group of people, it’s sunny and you’re walking around. The problem with the sunshine is that no one is home. At first it’s nerve wracking to knock on people’s doors, but after a few doors you just want someone to answer. Most people are nice enough to let you talk, some are interested in what’s going on, and some are eager to vote for your candidate. I definitely saw a lot of people who were unaware of the federal campaign or when it was taking place, often mixing it up with the provincial campaign. There were also some language issues, both on the phone and canvassing. Some people just didn’t have a good enough grasp on English to communicate. The one thing that surprised me was how many young people came out to help with Olivia’s campaign. The mayoral campaign definitely has way more volunteers and way more money invested into it (can spend up to $1 million). It’s also much further away, so a lot of people were undecided.

The one thing that I found a little weird was that they have lists of all the houses and who lives there. Part of the knocking on doors was asking who they were voting for, but the other part was asking who they were. To enter it into their system they wanted to know exactly which person was voting for whom. I thought this would bother people, but no one seemed to mind. I guess we’re all used to this kind of information being available. For Olivia’s campaign, everyone I talked to was undecided or eagerly supported her. Olivia herself was very pleasant and enthusiastic. She came by to get us pumped before heading out to another event. She is very serious about bringing positive change to the city.

Interestingly, for the Adam Vaughan campaign, they said they were doing the canvassing because the party decides how much money to invest based on their odds of winning. For example, if the door to door canvassing revealed that Adam only has 10% of the potential vote, then they would reduce their spending in the district. They said that the election was too soon (one month), to change people’s minds. I think this makes sense when there is a full federal election, but I’m not sure I understand it for a special by-election. I suppose the Liberal party doesn’t want to waste money if it has no chance of winning. It will be an interesting election for sure considering most citizens love Adam Vaughan and what he did as a councillor, but they usually vote NDP. We will have to see!

P.s. I'm hiding in the back of this picture somewhere...

Toronto - All The Elections (3)!

I have to say, for someone who was interested in getting involved in politics, I picked the perfect time to move to Toronto. There are so many elections taking place that it’s getting hard to keep track. In the next 5 months people who live in my area (Trinity-Spadina) will be voting for a mayor, a Toronto councillor, a provincial representative (which will lead to a new Premier) and a federal representative. I believe that’s technically three elections (municipal, provincial and federal). Short of voting for the Prime Minister, that’s every election that you could possibly have. I’ve decided that I’m going to use this opportunity to volunteer and see what goes on when a politician ‘campaigns’. First, I want to talk about the various elections.

I’ll start with the mayoral campaign. This is often talked about in the media, with Rob Ford as the current mayor of Toronto, and the mess that has accompanied that. Although he is currently in rehab, he is indeed running for re-election, just like he promised. Even though his approval rating went up briefly after admitting that he smoked crack, the events that followed (caught on tape uttering racist, sexist, and homophobic remarks) have not been so kind to him. With all of that said, he does have some major competition in the mayoral race.

The front runner is Olivia Chow, who was previously a federal MP for Trinity-Spadina (downtown Toronto), and before that, a Toronto City Councillor. She is also Jack Layton’s widow (head of the NDP until his death in 2011) and was elected as a member of the NDP. Her platform focuses on after school programs for children, a better transit system and job creation, especially for small businesses. The third big name in this race is John Tory, former leader of the Progressive Conservative party of Ontario, former commissioner of the CFL and former CEO of Rogers Media. That’s quite the resume. His platform focuses on fixing transit (specifically the Yonge Street relief line and the Scarborough subway), making Toronto more affordable (lowering property taxes & cutting waste at City Hall), and making City Hall more accountable. There are also some candidates who are less well known, such as David Soknacki and Karen Stintz, who are former Toronto City Councillor’s and have both contributed greatly to the city (Soknacki as Toronto’s Budget Chief and Stinz as chair of the Toronto Transit Commission). And of course there are always the unknowns who run just to see what will happen, such as the leader of the neo-Nazi part of Canada; a high school student; leader of the People’s Political party of Ontario; a Juno award winning jazz saxophonist, etc. This election will take place on October 27^th, 2014.

This date also represents the municipal election, which goes hand in hand with the mayoral election. Voters go to the ballots to decide who the 44 Toronto Councillors will be, as well as the mayor. The city is broken up into wards and each ward has a couple candidates in the running. Confusingly, Ward 19 and 20 both called Trinity-Spadina, although they cover different areas. My ward is Ward 20, and the previous councillor for this ward was Adam Vaughan, who is now running for the federal electoral district of Trinity-Spadina which was vacated by Olivia Chow so she could run for mayor. But we’ll get to him in a minute.  The municipal elections (along with the mayoral elections) are non partisan, meaning that the members do not represent a specific political party, only themselves and their platforms. These races will get very little attention and coverage, especially with everything else going on.

Now we get to the provincial elections which will result in a new Premier for the province of Ontario. It was called because the NDP announced that they would vote against the Liberal’s proposed budget. Considering the Liberals had a minority government, the lack of support from the NDP would leave them unable to make much progress. The current premier is Kathleen Wynne, who was not elected but stepped in when Dalton McGuinty stepped down. She is running against the leader of the Conservatives, Tim Hudak, and the NDP leader, Andrea Horwath. There has been an extensive amount of media running for this campaign, with the majority of it being negative. I think the attack ads are terrible, pulling attention from the issues and consistently attacking the Liberals for their poor spending, even though that was not under Kathleen Wynne’s rule. While voters do not vote for the Premier directly, they do vote for the MPP (Member of Provincial Parliament) in their riding. In my area, the provincial riding is also called Trinity-Spadina, and for the past 15 years has been held by Rosario Marchese, a member of the NDP. His major opponents are Han Dong (Liberal), Roberta Scott (Conservative), and Tim Grant (Green). This election is very soon, taking place on June 12^th, 2014. 

Lastly, is the special federal election being run in Trinity-Spadina to fill the empty seat. Like I mentioned earlier, this is being held because Olivia Chow left her seat to run for Mayor. This led to Adam Vaughan leaving his seat as a Toronto Councillor to run for the Liberals in this riding. Everyone is moving up in the world. Adam Vaughan is running against Joe Cressy (NDP), and Benjamin Sharma (Conservative). The seat has been held by the NDP since 2006, although before that it was Liberal for several years. This election is being held on June 30^th, 2014.

I think it has become very confusing for the public because all of these campaigns are running at the same time, and they all have volunteers assembling and large posters out. Across the elections, there are two candidates from each party running in Trinity-Spadina, as well as party advertising on TV and debates between potential mayors. To top it all off, there are a total of four voting areas that are called Trinity-Spadina!

This brings me back to my original point – getting involved. I have volunteered to help Adam Vaughan’s Federal campaign, as well as Olivia Chow’s Mayoral campaign. I think it’s time to see what it’s all about. This week I will go out and get my feet wet with each of them. I will let you know how it goes!

Equal Voice - Changing the Game

For several months now I have been writing a blog about technology, and the continuous change we see in the industry. Along the way I have found it hard not to discuss other things I am passionate such as politics, sports, and learning. Having just graduated University and heading to Toronto for a full time job, I thought this would be the perfect opportunity to perhaps start to blog about these other passions of mine, and hopefully be able to share the knowledge I learn with at least one other person.

Tonight I attended a panel hosted by the Ottawa chapter of Equal Voice. EV is an amazing organization that looks to get more women elected in all levels of government in Canada. They look to mentor and help women of any party who are looking to get involved. This evening's panel focused on making politics a sustainable endeavor for all those involved, and it discussed a book that was recently published called "Tragedy in the commons: Former members of parliament speak out about Canada's failing democracy." The panel consisted of Alison Loat, one of the authors; Marlene Catterall, one of the former MP's who was interviewed for the book; Jinny Sims, a current NDP MP; and Elizabeth May, a current MP and leader of the Green party.



One of the things that struck me immediately, was how well they had done in getting a diverse group of women together. You might think that all women who were or are MP's would have similar views about parliament and the house of commons, but this was not true at all. Here you had a woman who was an MP in the early 2000's, a woman who was currently an MP for the official opposition, a woman who was the head of a party that had only 2 elected members, and a woman who had interviewed dozens of women who were previous MP's. They all had experienced various things in their time in Government, and often contradicted each other. Some mentioned they had experienced or seen sexism, others had not. Some thought it was doable with young children, others did not. Some viewed their experiences as very positive and fulfilling, others not so much.

To start everything off, MP Lisa Raitt made some interesting observations. She said that people should not assume that all women who are MPs and have children are in the same situation. She pointed out that being an MP and having two toddlers is much different than being an MP and having two teenagers. She also said that it was very important to get women involved in elections at all levels, including in things such as minor hockey councils. It's about getting them to run, build their confidence and get involved.

The last thing I'll mention is the book. The authors said that although they interviewed approximately 80 former MPs, they all painted a very consistent picture of the house of commons. Most indicated that it was a poor work environment, and that they were wholly unprepared. Interestingly, they saved the biggest barbs for their own parties. I put some links below, if you want to check out Equal Voice or the book. Enjoy!

EV: http://www.equalvoice.ca/index.cfm
Tragedy in the Commons: http://www.randomhouse.ca/books/217230/tragedy-in-the-commons-by-alison-loat-and-michael-macmillan